{"id":15471,"date":"2024-12-17T09:05:10","date_gmt":"2024-12-17T07:05:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/?p=15471"},"modified":"2024-12-17T09:08:15","modified_gmt":"2024-12-17T07:08:15","slug":"playing-the-long-game-in-an-unpredictable-market","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/playing-the-long-game-in-an-unpredictable-market\/","title":{"rendered":"Playing the Long Game in an Unpredictable Market"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Investors are once again focused on stock price movements, trying to predict potential short-term market directions. This is evident from the number of questions we receive through various channels. When markets are highly active, it\u2019s natural for investors to feel concerned about where things are headed and where Sifter is investing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the end of November, we held a two-day workshop with our entire investment team. During the discussions, several global market concerns and their potential impacts on the companies in the Sifter Fund were highlighted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

We shifted our focus to what we can influence\u2014the overall portfolio view: the expected long-term money-making power and valuation levels of Sifter portfolio companies.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

We aim to own companies with long-term growth potential and with predictable earnings growth. At the same time, we strive to avoid stocks priced with excessive expectations and uncertainties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Pains of the Macro World \u2013 The Present Always Feels Harder Than the Past<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

For those investing based on macroeconomic news, recent years have been exceptionally challenging. When one uncertainty fades, two new ones emerge. It often feels like there\u2019s never a right time to invest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

While high inflation is now behind us, it has been replaced by an unpredictable U.S. president and escalating geopolitical tensions.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
Despite the significant macroeconomic challenges of recent years, these events have had little impact on stock returns. While this is no guarantee of future returns, it reflects investors\u2019 strong confidence in companies, even in the face of major macroeconomic obstacles.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In Sifter Fund\u2019s investment strategy,<\/strong> we analyze the effects of macroeconomics on the profitability of our companies, but we rarely make decisions based solely on macroeconomic factors. We remain fully invested in high-quality companies globally in all market conditions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Expensive Companies Keep Getting Pricier<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

I recently listened to an excellent podcast discussing Warren Buffett<\/strong>\u2019s stock picks and returns during the 1990s. Many believed the legendary investor had fallen behind because he avoided technology companies and lagged behind index returns. However, Buffett refused to overpay for companies he didn\u2019t fully understand\u2014a decision that ultimately rewarded Berkshire Hathaway<\/strong>\u2019s investors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, Sifter\u2019s portfolio management team has faced a similar dilemma.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Avoiding investments in companies like Nvidia makes it challenging to keep pace with indices where these companies play a significant role.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Companies such as Nvidia<\/strong> currently appear to be on the expensive side, especially given the significant uncertainty surrounding their earnings growth over the next five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In 2006, Alphabet <\/strong>(Google) was a $10 billion revenue company with a P\/E ratio of 68, widely considered overpriced at the time. Eighteen years later, in 2024, Alphabet generates approximately $25 billion in quarterly earnings, with its P\/E ratio having dropped to around 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Once deemed overvalued, Alphabet\u2019s stock price is now 18 times higher than its 2006 level. Sifter Fund has benefited from Alphabet\u2019s journey since 2015, when its valuation met our criteria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Companies like Alphabet<\/strong> and Nvidia<\/strong> make investing particularly challenging. Most of today\u2019s overpriced tech companies will not emerge as winners like Alphabet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

We\u2019ve decided not to overpay for market favorites but are willing to pay a slight premium for companies where we see highly predictable earnings growth.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Sifter Companies\u2019 Earnings Forecasts and Valuations up to next 5 Years<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

During our November workshop, we reviewed all our investments and updated their five-year earnings forecasts. Focusing on long-term earnings helps shift attention away from short-term stock price movements and toward achieving long-term goals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

According to our conservative estimates, Sifter Fund\u2019s earnings growth is expected to average 8% annually over the next five years\u2014an impressive figure.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\"Sifter\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
The best-performing companies in the fund are projected to grow their earnings by as much as 15-20% annually, while the more moderate performers are expected to achieve 3\u20135% annual growth.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Broadly speaking, Sifter\u2019s portfolio companies can be categorized into three groups based on growth forecasts, each representing roughly one-third of the portfolio:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • High-growth companies (15\u201320%), e.g., Novo<\/strong>, Lam Research<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Steady-growth companies (6\u201312%), e.g., Alphabet<\/strong>, Safran<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Moderate-growth companies (3\u20135%), e.g., Atlas Copco<\/strong>, Texas Instruments<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Sifter Portfolio Valuation Has Remained Historically Stable<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    High growth forecasts tend to be reflected in stock prices early on. The chart below illustrates the development of valuation levels for Sifter Fund\u2019s companies from 2018 to 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Sifter\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
    The valuation levels of the Sifter Fund are monitored based on the fifth-year earnings yield. In November 2024, the fund\u2019s valuation was close to its five-year average.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Despite a 15% increase in stock prices in 2024, the Sifter portfolio valuation remains at an average level based on the past five years. This is primarily due to improved earnings growth and the addition of new, attractively priced companies that we added into the portfolio during Q1\/24.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    Given our conservative earnings forecasts, the return potential of our companies now appears slightly stronger than it did at the start of the year.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    The main reasons for improved earnings outlook are:<\/strong> 1) semiconductor companies are expected to recover from the bottom of their cycle and deliver stellar profits in the coming years, and 2) the US industrial sector is anticipated to rebound from its downturn.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of Sifter Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    The return on invested capital (ROIC)<\/strong> for Sifter companies has remained impressively high at a median of 20%, significantly above the S&P 500 average of 10%. This reflects that our companies operate in growing end markets where they hold clear competitive advantages, and their management teams have identified profitable opportunities for reinvestment within their businesses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    When a company\u2019s management invests in business growth with a high ROIC, shareholders can reasonably expect substantial absolute earnings growth in the coming years.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    A high ROIC also signals robust end-market demand and growth, as well as management\u2019s confidence that reinvesting in the business offers better returns for shareholders than distributing profits as dividends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    During our two-day workshop, a sense of calm replaced the anxiety\u2014while we cannot control stock prices, we can control what we own.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    And that brings us to a point that, unfortunately, causes some headaches.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Could Trump Ruin Everything?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Probably not, at least in the short term. In the near future, tax cuts are likely to boost not only corporate net profits but also consumer purchasing power. It\u2019s fairly certain that U.S. economic growth will continue to accelerate in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    However, in the longer term, potential tariffs and increased consumption could fuel inflation. For now, it seems the U.S. economy is being positioned in a way that offers companies excellent opportunities to grow and thrive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    We conducted our own analysis of Trump\u2019s potential impacts on the companies in the Sifter portfolio. Admittedly, exercises like these can appear logically convincing, but the outcome remains uncertain.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    It\u2019s crucial to assess the probabilities of tariffs and their impacts on different companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Even if we managed to evaluate all possible variables correctly, the final question remains how the stock market will price these effects. As a result of our analysis, we made small adjustments to portfolio weights but did not fully exit any company solely due to Trump\u2019s potential influence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Based on our analysis, the expected Trump effect on Sifter Portfolio is expected to be slightly positive, on average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Company<\/th>Risk<\/th>Reasons<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>
    Microsoft<\/strong><\/td>Positive<\/td>\n
      \n
    • Could benefit from potential corporate tax cuts.<\/li>\n
    • Trump wants to reduce antitrust regulation. This could release Microsoft from an investigation into whether Azure’s (cloud business) strong market position has been misused.<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/td><\/tr>
    Alphabet<\/strong><\/td>Positive<\/td>\n
      \n
    • Could benefit from potential corporate tax cuts.<\/li>\n
    • We believe many U.S. technology companies will enjoy monopolistic positions, and antitrust restrictions may even be eased.<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/td><\/tr>
    Old Dominion Freight Line<\/strong><\/td>Positive<\/td>\n
      \n
    • Could benefit from potential corporate tax cuts.<\/li>\n
    • Nearly all revenue comes from U.S. operations.<\/li>\n
    • Tariffs could increase demand for U.S. industrial products and, in turn, boost the transportation of those goods.<\/li>\n
    • About 60% of ODFL\u2019s sales come from industrial companies.<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/td><\/tr>
    Novo Nordisk<\/strong><\/td>Negative<\/td>\n
      \n
    • The Trump administration may introduce Medicaid changes that could negatively impact Novo\u2019s revenue.<\/li>\n
    • Trump may also favor American pharmaceutical companies (e.g., Novo\u2019s competitor Eli Lilly).<\/li>\n <\/ul>\n <\/td><\/tr>
    Safran<\/strong><\/td>Slightly Negative<\/td>
    • The French company Safran holds a near-monopoly in the production and maintenance of narrow-body aircraft.<\/li>
    • Tariffs could increase the production costs of Boeing aircraft, even though Boeing uses engines manufactured by Safran.<\/li><\/ul><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

      Impact of Trump\u2019s Actions on the Semiconductor Industry<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

      The semiconductor industry deserves its own discussion, as it represents one of the most advanced global networks of collaboration across continents, countries, and companies. Overall, the industry\u2019s outlook is positive, as it is emerging from the bottom of its cycle and is expected to grow 10% per annum next 10 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      However, a new concern arises with the potential side effects of Trump\u2019s tariffs and possible trade war.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

      \n

      Semiconductors rely on a global and interdependent network. The players in the value chain are interconnected, and no single company or country is fully self-sufficient.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

      A potential trade war with China<\/strong> could result in a ban on selling advanced semiconductor equipment or chips to China. Similar restrictions have already been in place in recent years, yet China has managed to invest in and purchase more semiconductor equipment and chips than even oil. It remains to be seen how tariffs and sanctions will reshape the entire semiconductor value chain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Minor Portfolio Adjustments in Early December<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

      To reduce risks for Sifter investors, we trimmed the oversized position in TSMC<\/strong> in early December. TSMC’s stock price has risen by over 70%<\/strong> since the beginning of the year, while geopolitical and trade war-related risks have increased once again. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

      We realized part of the profits from TSMC and reallocated funds to Alphabet<\/strong>, which we consider one of the most attractively priced technology companies with a more stable risk profile.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Santeri Korpinen<\/strong>
      CEO<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

      For those investing based on macroeconomic news, recent years have been exceptionally challenging. When one uncertainty fades, two new ones emerge. 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