{"id":15847,"date":"2025-02-26T17:11:20","date_gmt":"2025-02-26T15:11:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/?p=15847"},"modified":"2025-02-28T13:47:14","modified_gmt":"2025-02-28T11:47:14","slug":"the-beauty-of-safrans-business-model-lies-in-its-predictability","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/the-beauty-of-safrans-business-model-lies-in-its-predictability\/","title":{"rendered":"The beauty of Safran\u2019s business model lies in its predictability"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Safran is known for its Leap engines, which have gained almost a monopoly position in narrow-body Airbus and Boeing aircraft. Growth is on the way, as the number of airplanes is expected to double by 2040.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Safran<\/strong> is an excellent example of a Sifter Fund quality investment with sustainable competitive advantages and a strong business model. The company operates in a growing industry and has predictable revenue streams. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

We made our first investment in Safran in 2015. Nearly ten years later, the company became the largest investment in the Sifter Fund portfolio in February 2025.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
Safran’s stock price took a significant hit during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, the company’s strong business model and net cash position helped it weather the temporary setbacks.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\"Safran\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
French aircraft engine manufacturer Safran is known for its Leap engines, which have almost gained a monopoly position in narrow-body Airbus and Boeing aircraft. \u00a9 Adrien Daste, Safran<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n

The beauty of Safran\u2019s business model lies in its predictability.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Although the margins on engine sales are not impressive, Safran makes its money from long-term maintenance for engines, which provide predictable, growing, and highly profitable cash flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Three key factors stand out in Safran\u2019s business that align perfectly with Sifter\u2019s investment criteria.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  1. The company has clear competitive advantages.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  2. The demand for its products or services is growing.<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  3. The company has a healthy balance sheet and is preferably debt-free.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n

    Let\u2019s look at Safran\u2019s business from the perspective of predictability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Competitive Advantages Provide Protection and Improve Predictability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    High-margin businesses attract competition. <\/strong>Therefore, we seek to own companies with clear competitive advantages that create high barriers to entry and prevent competitors from entering the same market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Safran\u2019s competitive advantages can be seen in its technological expertise, strong customer relationships, long-term contracts, high switching costs, and global network.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"Safran
    The production of aircraft engines requires a long cumulative knowledge base, and new competitors face significant challenges in entering a market where an established player has already secured its position. \u00a9 Adrien Daste, Safran<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    The aviation industry is one of the most strictly regulated industries. All parts used in airplanes and their suppliers must meet the requirements and pass tests from multiple regulatory authorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    It is extremely difficult for new competitors to enter such a strictly regulated market.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    Developing a new aircraft engine takes decades and requires vast technological expertise. Safran has a large portfolio of patents and intellectual property rights that protect the company\u2019s developed technologies and products from potential competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Market Growth Enables Future Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Sifter Fund wants to own companies that operate in a market with growing end-demand. The growth of end-demand brings organic growth opportunities for companies that are market leaders and have competitive advantages.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The growth of air traffic drives Safran\u2019s long-term growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    The number of aircraft is expected to double by 2040, meaning that the number of engines requiring maintenance will increase significantly as the number of airplanes grows.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    In Sifter\u2019s investment strategy, the growth and predictability of a company\u2019s business play a central role in making investment decisions. We prefer companies like Safran, which can profitably generate returns from the industry\u2019s growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    We avoid industries or markets with weak growth prospects. The withering of demand growth ultimately leads to stagnation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
    Safran has demonstrated long-term (2010\u20132023) growth in its ability to generate cash and profitability.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Recurring Service Revenue Models Enhance Long-Term Predictability<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Recurring service revenue <\/strong>models provide an excellent opportunity to forecast a company\u2019s long-term cash flows. We want to own companies whose cash flows mainly consist of recurring services.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n

    Safran\u2019s business is largely based on maintenance for engines sold, which generates stable and highly profitable revenue streams for the company.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    By knowing how many engines Safran manufactures annually and how many engines it has under maintenance, we can predict how the maintenance business will perform in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
    The number of Leap engines is expected to double by 2030. The growing number of installed engines will also be reflected in the maintenance business (shop visits).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Long-term contracts secured by recurring revenue streams are predictable and provide peace of mind, especially when products or services are critical for their customers<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    The criticality of products or services for customers gives investors confidence that demand will remain high even during economic downturns, which improves the predictability of the company\u2019s business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
    Safran has proven that it can achieve, and even exceed, its growth targets despite the rapid changes in macroeconomic events over the past five years.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
    \n

    Sifter Fund favors companies whose products or services are so critical to end customers that they are not easily replaced or discontinued.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

    It is difficult to imagine a scenario where aircraft engines would be replaced by another manufacturer\u2019s engines during their lifespan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \"\"\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button>
    The company has secured its position in narrow-body aircraft by Airbus and Boeing, and its order backlog for new aircraft engines extends up to 8 years.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

    Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

    Safran is an excellent example of a Sifter Fund quality investment with sustainable competitive advantages and a strong business model. The company operates in a growing industry and has predictable revenue streams. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Safran\u2019s strong market position, high barriers to entry, and established customer relationships\u2014especially with Airbus and Boeing\u2014provide protection during economic fluctuations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Sifter Fund focuses on long-term ownership in very high-quality companies with predictable business models. Predictability brings stability and helps manage risks in the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Santeri Korpinen<\/strong>
    CEO<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Safran is known for its Leap engines, which have gained almost a monopoly position in narrow-body Airbus and Boeing aircraft. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":14197,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15847","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nThe beauty of Safran\u2019s business model lies in its predictability - Sifter Fund<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Safran is an excellent example of a Sifter Fund quality investment with sustainable competitive advantages and a strong business model.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/the-beauty-of-safrans-business-model-lies-in-its-predictability\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"The beauty of Safran\u2019s business model lies in its predictability - 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