{"id":16203,"date":"2025-04-28T11:00:22","date_gmt":"2025-04-28T08:00:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/?p=16203"},"modified":"2025-04-28T11:22:35","modified_gmt":"2025-04-28T08:22:35","slug":"stock-markets-are-unstable-should-you-buy-sell-or-hold","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/stock-markets-are-unstable-should-you-buy-sell-or-hold\/","title":{"rendered":"Stock Markets Are Unstable \u2014 Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Over the past few years, I\u2019ve spoken with dozens of investors who\u2019ve expressed regret about not seizing the opportunity the last time stocks were on sale. Now, we find ourselves in a similar situation: markets are once again offering discounts, but investors are weighed down by familiar uncertainties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many fear the stock price decline will continue. The future feels more uncertain than it has in a long time, and the news cycle is filled with endless scenarios of economic weakening. The media fuels fear \u2014 and fear sells.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This triggers a well-known cognitive bias: when negative information is fresh and readily available, we tend to overestimate the likelihood of worst-case scenarios. This is known as recency bias.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But what if we tried to fight back against that bias \u2014 and drew on the timeless wisdom of investing legends?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Act with calm determination when prices are low and uncertainty feels overwhelming.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Are Stock Market Discounts Already Deep Enough?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

When a department store launches a clearance sale, demand usually rises. People feel they\u2019re getting more value for their money. But when the stock market goes on sale, the reaction is often the opposite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Low prices often come hand in hand with high uncertainty<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Take 2022 as an example: many tech companies saw their stock prices plummet. Microsoft<\/strong>\u2019s share price dropped by over 30%, and Alphabet<\/strong> (Google) fell more than 40% from its early-year highs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"MSFT\n\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t<\/svg>\n\t\t<\/button><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Was Microsoft\u2019s business really in over 30% worse shape? Unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s worth asking the same question about many companies right now:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Is the company\u2019s business truly 30% weaker if the market is pricing it 30% lower than it was two weeks ago?<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The answer, of course, depends on the company. What matters most is understanding whether the company\u2019s long-term earnings and business model remain intact \u2014 and how the market is currently valuing its future cash flows.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stock market history is full of examples where a stock never returned to its previous highs. In such cases, the underlying business was either misjudged from the start \u2014 or had fundamentally and permanently deteriorated. In the same way, several high-quality stocks have already dropped beyond what their long-term cash flows suggest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two Scenarios \u2014 A View on the Current Situation<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The current global environment, with new tariffs and trade tensions, is highly unpredictable. It\u2019s difficult to form a clear view of the future, as both complex economic relationships and impulsive political decisions are in play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Still, I\u2019ll try to outline two opposing scenarios \u2014 neither of which is likely to unfold exactly as described, but they help illustrate the range of possible outcomes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Temporary shock \u2014 A Positive Scenario<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

The U.S.-led trade war is just one tool in the administration\u2019s broader playbook \u2014 a way for Trump to create chaos, renegotiate deals, and eventually lift most of the tariffs (while declaring victory). The core goal is to reduce the U.S. trade deficit, lower interest rates and borrowing costs, and cut public spending. After that, with the midterm elections approaching, it\u2019s time to sweeten the message by promising corporate and consumer tax cuts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the best-case scenario, other countries follow suit by removing tariffs as well, helping to restore a cautious sense of confidence in the global economic system. The effects on global GDP would be temporary, and corporate profitability would remain intact. A stronger economic recovery could even follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In this scenario, the stock market could rally quickly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Permanent deterioration \u2014 A Negative Scenario<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

In a more pessimistic scenario, the tariffs initially intended as a negotiation tactic evolve into a prolonged trade war that fractures global supply chains and erodes trust in the international trade system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The consequences become embedded in the global economy, creating a negative spiral that weighs on corporate earnings for years to come. In response, both the U.S. and Europe slash interest rates and boost stimulus through debt-financed measures, ultimately fueling a return of inflation \u2014 this time, even higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Local businesses may cope, but only if consumer demand holds up. China could slip into a recession as exports weaken. Uncertainty lingers, affecting everyone, and markets swing wildly in response to news \u2014 but with a downward trend.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Economic distress leads to social distress, which may eventually spark unrest and conflict.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A conclusion and an Educated Guess<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The key question is: how long could the worst-case scenario last \u2014 and how bad might it get?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

I consider myself a realist, but I remain optimistic about human nature\u2019s inherent greed.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

I don\u2019t believe the U.S. is willing to sacrifice decades of accumulated \u2014 and future \u2014 stock market returns and economic growth for the sake of a prolonged trade war. This is a country where making money and building wealth are core values \u2014 if not the most important ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s why I believe the tariffs and trade tensions will turn out to be a temporary chapter. Naturally, we may still see sharp market swings as negotiations play out and uncertainty persists. Confidence has been shaken \u2014 and it will take time to rebuild. However, I find it likely that greed will prevail before confidence returns.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Santeri Korpinen<\/strong>
CEO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Over the past few years, I\u2019ve spoken with dozens of investors who\u2019ve expressed regret about not seizing the opportunity the last time stocks were on sale.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11904,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16203","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nStock Markets Are Unstable \u2014 Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold? - Sifter Fund<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/stock-markets-are-unstable-should-you-buy-sell-or-hold\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Stock Markets Are Unstable \u2014 Should You Buy, Sell, or Hold? 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