{"id":16563,"date":"2025-06-17T10:18:27","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T07:18:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/?p=16563"},"modified":"2025-06-19T09:36:09","modified_gmt":"2025-06-19T06:36:09","slug":"why-do-we-speak-so-optimistically-about-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/why-do-we-speak-so-optimistically-about-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Why Do We Speak So Optimistically About Stocks?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

During the April market crash, one of our investors asked an honest question: Why do we speak so positively about stocks when the news is filled with threats and uncertainty?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I replied that we\u2019re not optimistic about stocks per se \u2014 we\u2019re optimistic about the underlying businesses<\/strong> and their strength.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

The stock market is volatile and unpredictable, but the operations of a high-quality company are surprisingly predictable.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
Safran\u2019s stock took a hard hit during the COVID-19 pandemic, but over the past five years, its share price has tracked the company\u2019s growing earnings power.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

In the Short Term, Stock Markets Reflect Investor Sentiment<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Economic conditions and key figures do influence share prices, but more often they reinforce the prevailing mood \u2014 rarely do they change it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When strong momentum takes hold, even bad news isn\u2019t enough to extinguish optimism.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Investors check their portfolios even at traffic lights \u2014 not because they\u2019re about to make a decision, but because a brief rise in share prices gives a momentary dopamine rush.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

If a stock price were an animal, it would be the zoo\u2019s most popular attraction \u2014 the one you simply can\u2019t ignore.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In recent years, stock market crashes have become faster. Whereas downturns used to last over a year, today confidence in stocks often returns within weeks or months.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Even though the pace of the stock market has accelerated, the underlying businesses haven\u2019t changed at the same speed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Conflict Between Short-Term and Long-Term Thinking<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Warren Buffett <\/strong>summed up this contradiction decades ago:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

In the short run, the stock market is a voting machine; in the long run, it\u2019s a weighing machine.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In the voting machine, declining sentiment causes concern and rising sentiment brings joy. Many investors move with this mechanism \u2014 their moods and decisions fluctuate with market sentiment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But a company\u2019s business is a different story altogether.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Does a Company\u2019s Business Really Change as Fast as its Stock Price?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Very rarely.<\/strong> Few companies genuinely experience a 30% change in their value over a short time \u2014 even if the stock price moves 30% up or down tomorrow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When that happens, it\u2019s usually due to an exceptional event: a major acquisition, regulatory approval of a new drug, a technological breakthrough, or a serious business risk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The weighing machine, however, doesn\u2019t lie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Over the long term, a stock\u2019s price reflects the company\u2019s ability to generate profits \u2014 how much real cash flow it delivers to its shareholders.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is the weighing machine Buffett referred to. And this is the steady truth we rely on at Sifter \u2014 not on short-term market fluctuations, but on the quality of the business and its ability to grow it’s earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s why we speak optimistically about stocks \u2014 or more accurately, about companies \u2014 even in the middle of a storm.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Where do Long-Term Stock Market Returns Come From?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Simply put, the expected return of a stock is built on two key components: earnings growth<\/strong> and dividends<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Between 2019 and 2024, the companies in the Sifter Fund portfolio grew their earnings by an average of 12%<\/strong> annually and paid out dividends of about 2%<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So, a 14%<\/strong> annual return would have been a reasonable expectation. But why was Sifter Fund\u2019s actual average annual return around 16%<\/strong> over the same period*?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The answer lies in a third driver of returns \u2014 valuation multiples<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When market sentiment is positive, investors are willing to pay more for future earnings \u2014 which pushes stock price valuations even higher. This isn\u2019t about changes in business performance, but rather in mood.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Period from December 31, 2018 to December 31, 2024. Sifter Fund Global PA share class: 15.79%, and Sifter Fund Global PI share class: 16.23%. Please remember that past performance is not indicative of future results.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

What do the Next Five Years Look Like?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve selected companies for the Sifter portfolio that we believe will continue to grow their earnings in a predictable way over the next five years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Our conservative estimate is that the operating profit of Sifter\u2019s portfolio companies will grow by approximately 9%<\/strong> per year on average.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

We expect dividends to fall within the 1\u20132% range. However a high dividend yield is not a key criterion for our investment decisions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

While market consensus expects stronger earnings growth figures, Sifter\u2019s forecasts are almost always more cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Can a Sifter Investor Expect 9\u201310% Annual Returns?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Unfortunately, we can\u2019t promise that \u2014 not because the companies would fail, but because stock markets are inherently unpredictable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At times, the market behaves like it\u2019s in a mania, pushing stock prices up by 30% in a year. But such excess often ends in a hangover \u2014 both emotional and financial. In the years that follow, valuations tend to adjust \u2014 sometimes sharply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Why Do We Believe in Quality Companies?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The short answer:<\/strong> a high-quality business offers its owners predictable and growing earnings well into the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

When you buy shares in such a company at a reasonable price today, it\u2019s realistic to expect higher earnings per share five years from now.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

That means growing cash flow and long-term shareholder value. And often, the stock price tends to follow \u2014 albeit unevenly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a>
TSMC has grown its earnings consistently over the long term, and its share price has followed this development. However, the stock price has fluctuated significantly in the short term due to various macro events.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

What Enables Predictable and Growing Earnings?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sifter\u2019s team spends over 5,000 hours a year on research \u2014 precisely to ensure that our portfolio companies remain high quality and continue to grow their earnings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

1. High Barriers to Entry <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Companies whose businesses are protected by high barriers to entry are better shielded from price competition and can grow with less disruption.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For example, aircraft engine manufacturer Safran<\/a> operates in a highly regulated industry, which creates predictable and stable business conditions.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

2. High Margins and Pricing Power<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

When a company\u2019s products or services are critical to its customers, it can raise prices without losing significant business.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

TSMC<\/strong>, the world\u2019s largest independent chip manufacturer, is an excellent example of this.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

3. Scalable Earnings Model and Loyal Customer Base <\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Costco<\/a> is a great example of this with its membership-based model \u2014 membership fees go directly to the bottom line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the same time, purchases by new members improve the company\u2019s economies of scale, further boosting profitability.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

4. Growing End Market<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Quality companies are often market leaders in focused segments \u2014 either globally or locally. They operate in industries where end demand is rising, and they capture a large share of that growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In addition, they typically invest 5\u201315% of their revenue in R&D to maintain their leadership position, which in turn earns them higher margins than their competitors.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

\n

5. Strong Leadership and Clear Strategy<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Quality companies are led by management teams that think like owners. They understand the company\u2019s strengths and follow a long-term strategy.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This strategy brings clarity, predictability, and consistency to decision-making \u2014 even in challenging times.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

Summary<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s hard not to like quality companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

While stock markets react quickly, the underlying business often continue steadily.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

That\u2019s why market downturns can offer long-term investors a chance to buy quality at a discount.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And that\u2019s exactly why we speak optimistically about stocks \u2014 or more accurately, about the businesses behind them \u2014 especially when the rest of the world sees only headlines and fear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Santeri Korpinen<\/strong>
CEO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

During the April market crash, one of our investors asked an honest question: Why do we speak so positively about stocks when the news is filled with threats and uncertainty?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":15055,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16563","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nWhy Do We Speak So Optimistically About Stocks? - Sifter Fund<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The stock market is volatile and unpredictable, but the operations of a high-quality company are surprisingly predictable.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/why-do-we-speak-so-optimistically-about-stocks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Why Do We Speak So Optimistically About Stocks? 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