{"id":16754,"date":"2025-08-19T10:00:13","date_gmt":"2025-08-19T07:00:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/?p=16754"},"modified":"2025-08-19T13:02:18","modified_gmt":"2025-08-19T10:02:18","slug":"long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company\/","title":{"rendered":"Long-Term Growth Is the Lifeline of a Quality Company"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The hallmark of a quality business is long-term growth in revenue and earnings. A quality company doesn\u2019t need to be a hyper-growth star \u2013 what matters more is predictability of earnings over the long term, across economic cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our goal is a globally diversified and reasonably valued portfolio, where companies grow predictably over time. That\u2019s why we don\u2019t invest solely in the fastest-growing businesses. Doing so would push valuations too high and increase risks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

5 Year Forecast for Sifter Fund Companies<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sifter Fund\u2019s holdings can be divided into three categories based on their expected five-year revenue and earnings growth. Each category contains roughly the same number of companies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Fast Growers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u2192 Expected earnings growth*: above 10% per year<\/strong>
\u2192 Examples: Semiconductor companies, Microsoft, Safran<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Moderate Growers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u2192 Expected earnings growth*: 7\u20139% per year<\/strong>
\u2192 Examples: Most pharmaceutical companies, Alphabet<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Steady Growers<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

\u2192 Expected earnings growth*: 3\u20136% per year<\/strong>
\u2192 Examples: Most industrials, Johnson & Johnson<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

*Sifter forecast 2025\u20132029<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

In this article, I\u2019ll outline five key characteristics that enable a quality company to grow over the long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1. Growing End Market \u2013 The Foundation of Sustainable Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

The starting point for sustainable growth is an industry or niche market where demand is expanding. If the end-market demand is stagnant, a company is forced to steal market share from competitors \u2013 often leading to price competition and eroded margins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Research shows that over 60% of a company\u2019s growth comes from end-market growth.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The best performers typically find growth pockets where demand grows steadily year after year. These niches are often critical parts of the industry value chain, supported by long-term structural trends.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Examples of end-market growth:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Obesity treatment<\/strong>
The global obesity epidemic has created enormous, long-lasting demand for effective treatments. Novo Nordisk<\/strong> and Eli Lilly <\/strong>benefit from this trend with their drugs, which have global demand for years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Semiconductors<\/strong>
Digitalization, artificial intelligence, and data center expansion are fueling explosive demand for semiconductors. Industry leaders such as Nvidia<\/strong> and TSMC<\/strong> are well positioned to capture a large share of this growth.<\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

2. Competitive Advantage and Barriers to Entry \u2013 Why Strong Positions Last<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n

A growing market alone is not enough \u2013 investors must understand why a specific company benefits most from that growth, and why competitors can\u2019t dislodge its position.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

A strong competitive advantage and a high market share ensure that a company captures the lion\u2019s share of industry growth.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Once a company achieves a leading position and builds protective moats around it, the position is difficult to challenge. These moats may include patents, scale advantages, high capital requirements, or regulatory hurdles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Most importantly, it must be too costly or difficult for new entrants to compete effectively.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

\n

Typical competitive advantages and barriers to entry:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Technological edge<\/strong>
Patents, long learning curve, and expertise make imitation slow and costly.
Examples: TSMC<\/strong>, Disco Corporation<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Scale advantages<\/strong>
Large production volumes or a dense service network reduce unit costs, making it difficult for newcomers to compete profitably on price.
Examples: Costco<\/strong>, Cintas<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Network and installed base effects<\/strong>
A wide customer base and large installed equipment base generate recurring aftermarket sales in service and spare parts.
Examples: Atlas Copco<\/strong>, Safran<\/strong>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regulation and certifications<\/strong>
Required licenses and certifications can block new entrants from the market.
Examples: West Pharmaceutical, Deutsche B\u00f6rse.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Data and ecosystem advantage
<\/strong>Large user bases and data sets improve service quality and value, attracting even more users and reinforcing market position. Ecosystems and integrations make switching providers difficult.
Examples: Microsoft, Alphabet.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

3. Recurring Revenue \u2013 Predictability for Growth<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Companies with recurring revenue models are far more resilient than those reliant on one-off sales. Long-term contracts smooth out economic cycles, improve cash-flow management, and strengthen customer relationships as partnerships continue year after year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Many industrial companies design their business model so that the initial product sale is only the beginning of a long revenue stream.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Atlas Copco<\/strong> sells compressors, but their long-term maintenance and service agreements generate revenue throughout the equipment\u2019s life cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Safran<\/strong> applies the same principle in aerospace. The majority of its profits come from engine maintenance and spare parts over the 20-year lifespan of a narrow-body aircraft engine. Each new engine sale locks in decades of recurring service revenue.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4. Pricing Power and Customer Loyalty<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Pricing power is the ability to raise prices without losing customers. It works when the product is critical for the customer yet represents only a small share of their total costs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Price increases are one of the most effective ways to grow earnings \u2013 but they require highly competitive and indispensable products.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Strong customer loyalty reduces sales and marketing expenses. Loyal clients provide a stable revenue base, making profits more predictable and margins easier to sustain.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Customer value can be created in many ways. Some quality companies invest heavily in R&D, producing better products that justify premium pricing. Others focus on efficiency and cost consciousness \u2013 for example, Costco<\/strong>, which offers groceries at consistently low prices in exchange for a membership fee. Low prices attract more members, large volumes improve purchasing terms, and every new paying member strengthens Costco\u2019s growth flywheel.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5. High-Return Growth Investments \u2013 Capital at Work for the Future<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Quality companies don\u2019t settle for defending their current position. They actively reinvest in developing their business. What matters is not the amount invested, but the efficiency of those investments \u2013 often measured by ROIC (Return on Invested Capital).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

When each dollar invested generates returns far above the cost of capital, the company can compound value over time.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

At Sifter, we prefer companies that reinvest profits back into their business rather than paying them out as dividends. We believe this builds a stronger foundation for competitive advantage and long-term earnings growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n

Quality companies consistently find attractive reinvestment opportunities \u2013 whether in R&D, expanding capacity, entering new markets, or through acquisitions. <\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This creates a snowball effect, where profitable investments drive earnings growth, enabling even larger investments in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

How Sifter\u2019s Companies Are Expected to Grow (2025\u20132029)<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Sifter Fund\u2019s 30 holdings <\/strong>operate across 17 industries<\/strong>. Each has its own pace, cycle, and outlook. We forecast revenue and earnings growth for each company five years ahead and update our estimates quarterly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past five years <\/strong>(2019\u20132024), the revenue of the fund\u2019s current portfolio companies grew at an average annual rate of 10.2%<\/strong>, while operating profit grew by 13.6%<\/strong> (CAGR).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

For the next five years<\/strong> (2024\u20132029), we expect the current companies\u2019 revenue to grow at an average annual rate of 7.6%<\/strong> and operating profit by 8.2%<\/strong> (CAGR).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Our current forecasts are slightly more cautious than before, mainly due to concerns about tariffs and trade tensions. However, there is room for positive surprises if global macroeconomic conditions turn more favorable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Possible positive drivers:<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • Smaller-than-expected impact from tariffs<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Tax cuts in the US<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Lower interest rates in the US and Europe<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Industrial recovery in the US<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • EU recovery funds supporting European industries<\/li>\n\n\n\n
  • Semiconductor rebound from the current downturn<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

    Of course, negative surprises are always possible, as the past five years have reminded us. Even so, many quality companies have continued to grow their revenue and earnings despite setbacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Finding a true quality company takes effort \u2013 but it\u2019s worth it. When a business operates in a growing market, has durable competitive advantages, and generates stable cash flow, it\u2019s a joy to own even when stock markets get jittery.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    These companies provide peace of mind to investors and strong foundations for long-term value creation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    Santeri Korpinen<\/strong>
    CEO<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    In this article, I outline five essential characteristics that enable a quality company to achieve long-term growth.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":11904,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16754","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"\nLong-Term Growth Is the Lifeline of a Quality Company - Sifter Fund<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Long-Term Growth Is the Lifeline of a Quality Company - Sifter Fund\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"In this article, I outline five essential characteristics that enable a quality company to achieve long-term growth.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Sifter Fund\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:publisher\" content=\"https:\/\/www.facebook.com\/sifterfund\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-08-19T07:00:13+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-08-19T10:02:18+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/santeri-korpinen-2022-01.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1600\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"840\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Santeri Korpinen\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Santeri Korpinen\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"8 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Article\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sifterfund.com\\\/en\\\/long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company\\\/#article\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sifterfund.com\\\/en\\\/long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company\\\/\"},\"author\":{\"name\":\"Santeri Korpinen\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sifterfund.com\\\/en\\\/#\\\/schema\\\/person\\\/cdaf3d3c950e7e984d33e9ddc788c214\"},\"headline\":\"Long-Term Growth Is the Lifeline of a Quality Company\",\"datePublished\":\"2025-08-19T07:00:13+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-08-19T10:02:18+00:00\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sifterfund.com\\\/en\\\/long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company\\\/\"},\"wordCount\":1227,\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sifterfund.com\\\/en\\\/#organization\"},\"image\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sifterfund.com\\\/en\\\/long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company\\\/#primaryimage\"},\"thumbnailUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sifterfund.com\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/santeri-korpinen-2022-01.jpg\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sifterfund.com\\\/en\\\/long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/sifterfund.com\\\/en\\\/long-term-growth-is-the-lifeline-of-a-quality-company\\\/\",\"name\":\"Long-Term Growth Is the Lifeline of a Quality Company - 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