{"id":6814,"date":"2021-01-29T09:30:00","date_gmt":"2021-01-29T07:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/?p=6814"},"modified":"2021-03-03T10:51:01","modified_gmt":"2021-03-03T08:51:01","slug":"long-term-investing-how-to-choose-stocks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/long-term-investing-how-to-choose-stocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Long-Term Investing: How to choose stocks?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"lead-p\">Long-term investing is a concept known to many investors. Its advantages are indisputable. Money works over time \u2013 at least in theory.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The practical challenge is to find the businesses that benefit from time; the companies that grow and provide their shareholders with returns, year after year. In this article, we\u2019ll briefly discuss the criteria that a long-term investor should focus on and how the price of a stock is affected by long time horizons and the quality of the company.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"text-cta\">We have also written a 20-page guide about <a href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/long-term-quality-investing-guide\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Long-Term Quality Investing<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\t\t<div data-elementor-type=\"section\" data-elementor-id=\"7189\" class=\"elementor elementor-7189 elementor-7179\" data-elementor-post-type=\"elementor_library\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<section class=\"elementor-section elementor-top-section elementor-element elementor-element-73e79c3 elementor-section-full_width ang-section-padding-initial elementor-section-height-default elementor-section-height-default elementor-repeater-item-none elementor-repeater-item-none_hover\" data-id=\"73e79c3\" data-element_type=\"section\" data-e-type=\"section\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-container elementor-column-gap-no\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-column elementor-col-100 elementor-top-column elementor-element elementor-element-1577f98 elementor-repeater-item-none elementor-repeater-item-none_hover\" data-id=\"1577f98\" data-element_type=\"column\" data-e-type=\"column\">\n\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-wrap elementor-element-populated\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-element elementor-element-ae94b20 uael-heading-align-left elementor-repeater-item-none elementor-repeater-item-none_hover elementor-widget elementor-widget-uael-table-of-contents\" data-id=\"ae94b20\" data-element_type=\"widget\" data-e-type=\"widget\" data-settings=\"{&quot;toc_icon_size&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:30,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;heading_bottom_space&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:10,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;content_between_space&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:5,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;toc_icon_size_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;toc_icon_size_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;scroll_to_top_offset&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;scroll_to_top_offset_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;scroll_to_top_offset_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;scroll_offset&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;scroll_offset_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;scroll_offset_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;heading_text_align&quot;:&quot;left&quot;,&quot;heading_bottom_space_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;heading_bottom_space_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;separator_bottom_space&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;separator_bottom_space_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;separator_bottom_space_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;content_between_space_tablet&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]},&quot;content_between_space_mobile&quot;:{&quot;unit&quot;:&quot;px&quot;,&quot;size&quot;:&quot;&quot;,&quot;sizes&quot;:[]}}\" data-widget_type=\"uael-table-of-contents.default\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"elementor-widget-container\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uael-toc-main-wrapper uael-toc-auto-collapse\" data-headings=\"h2,h3\" >\n\t\t\t<div class=\"uael-toc-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uael-toc-header\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"uael-toc-heading elementor-inline-editing\" data-elementor-setting-key=\"heading_title\" data-elementor-inline-editing-toolbar=\"basic\" >Table of contents<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uael-toc-switch\" data-hideshow=\"yes\" data-is-collapsible=\"yes\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"uael-icon fa\"><\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uael-toc-toggle-content\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uael-toc-content-wrapper\">\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<ul data-toc-headings=\"headings\" class=\"uael-toc-list uael-toc-list-disc\" data-scroll=\"500\" ><\/ul>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<div class=\"uael-toc-empty-note\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span>Add a header to begin generating the table of contents<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<a id=\"uael-scroll-top\" class=\"uael-scroll-top-icon\">\n\t\t\t\t\t<span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Scroll to Top<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t<\/a>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t<\/section>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Five key quality criteria for long-term investors<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>We use the following five qualitative criteria to evaluate companies for our portfolio. We also have a long list of more detailed qualitative and quantitative criteria that every investor should take into account.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\"><li><strong>The company\u2019s earnings model has clear competitive advantages <\/strong>that explain margins and profits that are higher than those of competitors.<\/li><li><strong>The industry is growing \u2013 <\/strong>more than 60% of the company\u2019s future growth is attributable to industry growth.<\/li><li><strong>The company\u2019s profits <\/strong>show stable growth and predictability for more than five years.<\/li><li><strong>Revenue is recurring <\/strong>(licenses, maintenance services) \u2013 enables the stability of profits even during economic downturns.<\/li><li><strong>High return on equity \u2013 <\/strong>when the return on invested capital (ROIC) is over 15%, it works wonders in terms of profitability over time.<\/li><\/ol>\n\n\n\n<p>Let\u2019s look at these criteria in the light of a real-world example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Case Starbucks \u2013 what is the effect of long-term investing in high-quality company?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>When a company\u2019s profit performance is stable, we know it has the capacity to invest in growth through product development, marketing or geographical expansion, for example.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>High return on invested capital, in turn, tells us that the management has the ability and the resources to make profitable investments in future growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>For instance, Starbucks, the world\u2019s largest chain of coffee shops, has maintained a return on invested capital (ROIC) of 25\u201335% for the past 10 years.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>In other words, the company has invested a significant proportion of its profits into its business by increasing the number of coffee shops, launching new products, expanding into China, and developing new digital services. The investments have been sound, as evidenced by the company\u2019s profits growing by an average of 16% per year (2010\u20132019) before the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>The share price has followed the money, i.e. the company\u2019s growing profits.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large graafi\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sifter-fund-starbucks-arvonkehitys.png\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"455\" src=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sifter-fund-starbucks-arvonkehitys-1024x455.png\" alt=\"Starbucks (SBUX) Stock Long-Term Value Development\" class=\"wp-image-6738\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sifter-fund-starbucks-arvonkehitys-1024x455.png 1024w, https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sifter-fund-starbucks-arvonkehitys-500x222.png 500w, https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sifter-fund-starbucks-arvonkehitys-768x341.png 768w, https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/sifter-fund-starbucks-arvonkehitys.png 1400w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>Sifter invested in Starbucks in January 2018 and made additional investments during Q2\/2020 and Q3\/2020. Image: stock value development of Starbucks (last five years).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Sifter Fund invested in Starbucks in January 2018 and made additional investments during Q2 and Q3\/2020. Although the coffee shop and restaurant business was hit hard by the restrictions introduced in response to the pandemic, Starbucks recovered surprisingly quickly. We believe the company was able to strengthen its competitive position during the COVID-19 pandemic and will be even stronger in the future.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large graafi\"><a href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/starbucks-net-income-adjusted-2005-2021.png\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"582\" src=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/starbucks-net-income-adjusted-2005-2021-1024x582.png\" alt=\"Starbucks Net income, adjusted FY 2005-2021 (estimate)\" class=\"wp-image-6967\" srcset=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/starbucks-net-income-adjusted-2005-2021-1024x582.png 1024w, https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/starbucks-net-income-adjusted-2005-2021-500x284.png 500w, https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/starbucks-net-income-adjusted-2005-2021-768x437.png 768w, https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/starbucks-net-income-adjusted-2005-2021-1536x874.png 1536w, https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/starbucks-net-income-adjusted-2005-2021.png 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/a><figcaption>The company&#8217;s investments have been good in the long-term, as the company\u2019s earnings have risen by an average of 16% a year (2010-2019), before the COVID-19 pandemic. Market estimate for the fiscal year 2021 is 3 340 mrd USD.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"text-cta\">Want to read more cases? Download our guide: <a href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/long-term-quality-investing-guide\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Long-Term Quality Investing.<\/a> In the guide, we explain Sifter\u2019s approach in more detail and cover five cases that exemplify the high-quality companies in the Sifter portfolio.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">When does long-term investing not work?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Investors sometimes fret about having added companies to their portfolio several years ago and still not seeing a profit. When they hear that others have performed better and index investing has generated great returns, the feeling is even worse. When a stock performs poorly for several years, it is usually a sign of the company having unresolved problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"wp-block-quote is-layout-flow wp-block-quote-is-layout-flow\"><p>Perhaps the investor bought the shares for emotional reasons, seeing that the price has come down and expecting it to go back up.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<p>Buying on emotion is a common psychological trap. A long-term quality investor buys shares based on careful analyses. If a company is on the ropes, even giving it a lot of time may not work to your advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Long-term quality investing is an apt description of Sifter\u2019s investment strategy<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>The importance of diligent company analysis is emphasized when you\u2019re building a long-term portfolio. The stocks selected for the portfolio must be companies that benefit from time and are able to withstand the unpredictable and inevitable turbulence in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Are you interested in long-term investing? Download our 20-page guide: <a href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/long-term-quality-investing-guide\/\">Long-Term Quality Investing<\/a> to learn more about how time and high-quality companies work in the investor\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Santeri Korpinen<\/strong><br><em>CEO, Sifter Capital Oy<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Long-term investing is a concept known to many investors. Its advantages are indisputable. Money works over time \u2013 at least in theory.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":6059,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6814","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.3 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Long-Term Investing: How to choose stocks? - Sifter Fund<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"We use the following five qualitative criteria to evaluate companies for our long-term investment portfolio.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/sifterfund.com\/en\/long-term-investing-how-to-choose-stocks\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Long-Term Investing: How to choose stocks? 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