On August 5, 2024, the stock markets experienced a severe drop that put investors on edge. Investment media seized the opportunity, increasing pressure with dramatic headlines. The stock market, glowing red, reminded investors of its unpredictability after a long time. Market declines are moments that assess both the stocks you own and you as an investor.
When uncertainty and fears materialize into significant stock price declines, an investor’s strategy and self-discipline are put to the test. How should one approach a drop in stock prices, and how can one prepare for market declines?
How should one approach rapid market corrections?
Market corrections happen very quickly, often leaving little time to make decisions — especially rational ones. To calm the mind, it’s important for an investor to review their investment strategy & principles. Additionally, it is advisable to dive deeper into company-specific investment research and assess if there has been a permanent deterioration in the business of the companies owned.
Often, hasty selling of stocks during such times can lead to significant long-term losses. Conversely, some investors rush to buy excessively discounted stocks. This may also be an irrational decision if one has not previously researched and decided where to invest.
Rapid market corrections do not always reflect a company’s long-term prospects or its true value.
When market momentum turns strongly negative, even high-quality companies can end up on sale, driven by investor fears.
Despite the decline, U.S. companies’ earnings season has been strong
Despite the gloomy stock market day in August, the Q2/2024 earnings season for S&P 500 companies has been strong.
91% of S&P 500 companies had reported their results by September 18, 2024. Of these, 78% exceeded expectations in earnings per share (EPS), and revenues also grew. Even 59% of companies reported a positive revenue surprise.
For Q2 2024, the blended (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 is 10.9%. If 10.9% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest year-over-year earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q4 2021 (31.4%) (Source: Factset, Earnings Insight).
From an earnings perspective, the world’s largest economy (US) is performing extremely well.
Despite the strong earnings season, there is a sense of greed in the markets — nothing seems to be enough.
Investors’ excessively high expectations for company earnings and uncertainty about their continuation are visible in rapid stock price changes. On the other hand, few would have expected in 2022 that company results would be so strong in 2024 and that the S&P 500 index would set new records.
No company or index grows indefinitely, but strong and quality companies often surprise with their ability to achieve even better results.
What do company earnings and indices lead to? That remains uncertain. In Sifter’s investment strategy, we do not attempt to predict future market movements. We focus on analyzing the long-term competitive advantages of the companies we own and try to avoid paying too high a valuation for them.
Can one prepare for market corrections?
Investors should critically review their portfolio during bull markets to ensure they do not own companies with overly optimistic stock prices. Investing during a rising tide seems easy, as nearly all stocks rise. It is only during a downturn that you see who is swimming naked. This age-old investment wisdom suggests that a company’s fundamentals must be sound, and its valuation should not be too high.
Overvalued growth stocks, whose prices exceed their long-term earning capacity, are susceptible to significant declines when markets weaken.
Growth stocks can collapse and may never return to their previous levels because valuations based on expectations can prove unsustainable. For example, the U.S. company Cisco Systems has not yet returned to the same price since the dot-com boom of 2000, even after 24 years. This could also happen with some AI stocks.
Instead of growth rockets, the Sifter fund invests in a small group of very high-quality businesses. Quality companies often have a sustainable business model, stable and predictable cash flows, and long-term competitive advantages that allow for growing earnings.
Even quality company valuations can become too high.
For each Sifter fund holding, we have calculated conservative earnings yield forecasts for five years. We use this earnings yield forecast to monitor our companies’ long-term prospects.
Sometimes, we encounter situations where the valuation of a quality company becomes too high due to rising expectations. This happened, in our view, with the Japanese company Disco Corporation in recent years. We recognized the increased risk and began reducing the company’s stock holdings at the beginning of 2024.
Sifter Fund’s added value to investors comes down to two key factors: Consistency and Discipline
Investing is much more than just smart buying and selling of stocks. It is a full-time job that requires continuous analysis of companies, precise monitoring, and a clear strategy. This work is not only time-consuming but also psychologically demanding.
An investor must be able to control their emotions and not react to the noise amidst uncertainty, as market unpredictability is constant. Focus on the companies and keep your ears closed to market noise.
Sifter fund has an eight-member team tasked with making investment decisions collectively. When a long-term investment strategy is collectively agreed upon, it is easier to remain consistent and maintain group discipline. This helps avoid the largest mistakes caused by anxiety, benefiting all Sifter investors.
Santeri Korpinen
CEO
