In January, the Sifter Fund rose by +5.0%. Please remember that past performance is not indicative of future results. (Sifter Fund Global PA class, formerly R class, 31.1.2025)
The most significant event in the investment markets in January was the release of a new AI model by the Chinese company DeepSeek. The key takeaway from the news was that DeepSeek had managed to develop its LLM model at a fraction of the cost compared to its U.S. competitors.
This could potentially mean that the demand for AI chips developed by Nvidia may decrease in the future.
In the Sifter portfolio, this was reflected in a decline in TSMC’s stock price. However, we had already significantly reduced TSMC’s weight in the portfolio back in December, which meant that the impact on the overall portfolio in January was minimal.
Top-3 January 2025 (total return in EUR)
- TOMRA Systems +14.5%
- Safran +13.1%
- Lam Research +11.8%
Bottom-3 January 2025 (total return in EUR)
- North West -6.5%
- BE Semiconductor -5.7%
- SMC Corporation -4.2%
What Changes Did We Make in Fall 2024?
In the fall of 2024, we increased weight in high-quality companies in Sifter portfolio that we believe have significant long-term growth potential. These companies included TOMRA Systems, Alphabet, Safran, and semiconductor equipment manufacturers Lam Research and Applied Materials. Many of these stocks rose significantly in January, and we managed to acquire them at attractive prices during the fall.
A Divided Year Ahead – Again
For 2025, we expect strong results from the companies in the Sifter portfolio. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, potential tariffs, and the threat of trade wars are creating uncertainty for investors. This was already reflected in a drop in stock prices at the beginning of February. For long-term stock investors, such declines can also create buying opportunities, provided that tariffs prove to be only temporary disruptions.
However, we believe that Sifter Fund’s globally diversified stock portfolio – covering 17 sub-sectors and 10 countries – reduces the risks associated with individual countries or sectors.
The primary risk protection for high-quality companies lies in the fact that they produce critical products and services for their customers, whose demand is not easily reduced.
Which Sectors Could Rise from the Trough?
We believe that industrial sector in the United States will begin to recover after several years of slow growth. In recent years, global economic growth has been largely driven by the services sector and the growth of technology and artificial intelligence. Could it now be the time for industrial production to rise? At least, it won’t be held back by President Trump’s desires. 28% of the Sifter Fund’s investments are allocated to the industrial sector, and they are diversified across six different countries.
Another sector we expect to see growth from in 2025 is semiconductor equipment manufacturers, such as Applied Materials and Lam Research. Although chips and semiconductors have been widely discussed in recent years, much of the semiconductor industry has been at the bottom of its cycle. In 2025, we expect that in addition to AI chips, the demand for other semiconductors will grow, and investments in equipment manufacturing will recover.
Will High Valuation Stocks Continue to Appreciatea?
As part of our investment strategy, we have kept the valuation of the portfolio reasonable and avoided overpriced companies unless their earnings growth is highly predictable.
When comparing the weighted average of the Sifter portfolio to the S&P 500 index, we notice that the S&P 500 is about 30% more expensive than the Sifter Fund (last 12 months, weighted average).
It is possible that highly valued U.S. stocks will continue to rise. However, we do not want to take the risk for Sifter Fund investors that they may eventually drop if growth expectations are not met.
Although the valuation levels of the companies we own are reasonable, it does not guarantee that they are immune to broader market downturns. We believe in long-term investing, seeking high-quality companies with predictable earnings growth that we can purchase at relatively attractive prices over a five-year horizon.
This strategy has been in place for nearly 22 years, and historically it has worked well.
Santeri Korpinen
CEO
